Viktor Orbán has used the war in Ukraine to advance his own interests

In its latest “public information” campaign, coinciding with the first anniversary of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the Budapest government described Hungary as a force for peace fighting against the Western war machine.

Contents

How and why Orbán chose not to engage Trade agreements have also brought about a change in rhetoric Poverty at home could be his downfall Bet against Hungary’s status just to stay in power

This rhetoric – complete with constant attacks on the “Brussels superstate” – is a classic example of the propaganda Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been peddling for years.

Orbán’s pro-Russian stance, however, remains greatly misunderstood. He is strategic and aims to weaken European support for Ukraine.

It is also relatively new and reflects his brand of selfish politics and willingness to gamble to assert Hungary’s position on the international stage.

In reality, Orbán is not pro-Russian; he is simply pro-Orbán.

How and why Orbán chose not to engage

To understand how and why Orbán came to defend a “non-aligned” position in the war in Ukraine, a summary is worthwhile.

In 2008, when Russia attacked Georgia, Orbán – then in political opposition – was quick to condemn the Russian aggression, stating, plainly, that “military aggression is military aggression”.

It was in the following period, in a context of economic uncertainty, that Orbán’s so-called “illiberal” experiment and his change of perspective towards Eastern autocracy took hold.

Orbán stipulated that Hungary should strike out on its own and play a leading role within a new Central and Eastern European bloc, where smaller powers could assert themselves.

After his 2010 election victory, he came to the conclusion that “Western dominance” of the world was in decline and decided that engaging on one side would be disadvantageous.

Orbán stipulated that Hungary should strike out on its own and play a leading role within a new Central and Eastern European bloc, where smaller powers could assert themselves.

A rapprochement with Moscow has been a key component of this “Eastern opening,” and just two years after describing Russia as a “military aggressor,” Orbán called on Central European nations to forge a new dialogue with Russia, marking a shift in the two positions of Hungary’s 10-year foreign policy perspective.

Trade agreements have also brought about a change in rhetoric

Part of this shift has been underpinned by economic considerations and the influence of Russian loans.

Between 2010 and 2014, Orbán’s government nationalized the country’s energy companies, taking them out of foreign ownership before selling them on to Hungarian pro-government firms. In other words, Orbán’s cronies.

The move gave Orbán control over energy trade negotiations: In 2014, he secretly negotiated the construction of a nuclear power plant with Russian state funding, as well as the southeastern TurkStream gas pipeline, which opened in 2021.

The country also struck a new 15-year gas deal with Russia and became the headquarters of the pro-Russian International Investment Bank.

Orbán has used the power he and his allies wield over the media and messaging to smear his political opponents as “warmongers”.

In 2019, Hungary’s dependence on Russia was at a level not seen since 1990. This shift in the balance of power also coincided with annual meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the latest, in February 2022, described as a “peacekeeping mission”.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, Orbán was therefore faced with two choices: continue walking the tightrope between Western and Eastern interests or side with Europe in its support for Ukraine.

He chose the former and has spent the last year criticizing the EU’s role in the war while calling for “peace”.

“We should stay out of this war” became the Fidesz campaign slogan.

Today one cannot walk the streets of Budapest without seeing government-commissioned posters criticizing Western sanctions policy.

Orbán has used the power he and his allies wield over the media and messaging to smear his political opponents as “warmongers”.

Poverty at home could be his downfall

However, the energy crisis – affecting much of Europe – could ultimately be its undoing.

With domestic energy prices frozen since 2013, rising bills have come as a shock to Hungarian voters.

Inflation is currently at 25%, largely due to government mismanagement of the economy.

It has impoverished a significant portion of society, including those within Fidesz’s constituency.

It has so far successfully used Hungary’s “non-aligned” position in the war to secure funding.

Orbán’s repeated taunts of the EU eventually translated into belated attempts to rein him in.

In late 2022, the European Commission made a €7.5 billion post-covid recovery grant conditional on Hungary’s achievement of democratic “milestones”.

However, even with his back seemingly against the wall, Orbán managed, once again, to find a way out.

In December, he threatened to veto an 18 billion euro aid package to Ukraine in a rebuke to the behavior of the European Commission.

It has so far successfully used Hungary’s “non-aligned” position in the war to secure funding.

Bet against Hungary’s status just to stay in power

In every crisis involving the EU and Russia, Orbán has managed to evade potential landmines and advance his own interests.

And as the war in Ukraine drags on, it has other opportunistic cards to play.

Orbán’s record in power reveals that… he is a risk-taker, willing to gamble with Hungary’s position on the international stage to stay in power.

He knows, for example, that Europe is paying dearly to support Ukraine and that some political parties on the continent are now calling for a swift resolution of the conflict.

It also counts on declining support for the war and the possible election of Donald Trump as the next US president in 2024 to change the rules of the game once again.

Orbán’s record in power reveals one thing: he is a risk-taker, willing to gamble with Hungary’s position on the international stage to stay in power.

He remains confident, even as he adopts morally indefensible positions, that his “pragmatic” support for “peace” will pay off.

He has won big with this strategy in the past, and if left unchecked, he could win big again.

Zsuzsanna Szelényi is also a foreign policy expert, former Hungarian MP and author of Tainted Democracy: Viktor Orbán and the Subversion of Hungary.

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