The forint is holding on, everything depends on the euro

RockedBuzz
By RockedBuzz 201 Min Read


They cheated the HUF

In the evening trading, the forint was hit, the value of the Hungarian currency started to deteriorate compared to the euro. Currently, HUF 387.64 must be paid for the currency of the single market.

Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate

chart 55745

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0


The forint is gaining cautiously

For the time being, the Hungarian currency is growing slowly but steadily. By now, the exchange rate has briefly touched the level of 386.98.

Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate

chart 55733

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0

Compared to the dollar, the exchange rate is now around 365.25.

Development of the USD/HUF exchange rate

chart 55735

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0


The euro is pulling the HUF back

In the afternoon, the euro started to strengthen against the dollar, and for the time being, this is dragging the forint along with it. Now the Hungarian currency has fallen again to 387 against the euro.

Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate

chart 55713

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0


The forint held on, but was pulled back again by the critical level

For a short time, the forint was able to look below 387.5 against the euro, but for now it turned back and danced away from 387.0.

Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate

chart 55707

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0


The forint is stuck, the euro is back

The euro is giving up more and more of its significant intraday strengthening against the dollar: although the exchange rate was already above 1.61, in the last hour the exchange rate is already around 1.0583.

Development of the EUR/USD exchange rate

chart 55701

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0

This also restrains the forint, which cannot significantly move from the levels around 387.5 compared to the euro.

Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate

chart 55703

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0

The dollar also gradually began to offset the strengthening of the forint, the greenback has now returned from 365.2 to 366.5-366.

Development of the USD/HUF exchange rate

chart 55705

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0


The forint took hold at 387.5

The forint ran several times to pass the 387.5 band, but so far it has always rebounded from it, and now the exchange rate is approaching 388 again compared to the euro. In recent weeks, this level has often represented the maximum strength.

Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate

chart 55665

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0

Against the dollar, the limit is currently around 365.5.

Development of the USD/HUF exchange rate

chart 55667

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0


The strengthening of the forint has stopped

The vigorous strengthening of the forint in the morning has stopped for the time being, the Hungarian currency held its pace up to 387.5, but from there it started to weaken, and now the change is again at 387.8.

Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate

chart 55659

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0

The euro is still keeping pace against the dollar, the exchange rate is already above 1.061.

Development of the EUR/USD exchange rate

chart 55661

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0


They are really hammering the dollar

The dollar is weakening very quickly compared to the euro, the exchange rate is already above 1.06.

Development of the EUR/USD exchange rate

chart 55655

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0


The HUF is soaring

Parallel to the weakening of the dollar, the strengthening of the forint continues: compared to the euro, the exchange rate is below 387.5.

Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate

chart 55653

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0


The dollar collapses, the HUF has started

The US dollar began to weaken rapidly against the euro, which gave the forint a boost. Against the common European currency, the Hungarian currency was able to retreat to 388.15.

Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate

chart 55643

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0

Compared to the dollar, the forint has already closed to 367.

Development of the USD/HUF exchange rate

chart 55647

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0


The inflationary momentum did not last long

Clearly, the markets were not moved as much by the CSO data as expected – although core inflation is strong, showing a strong improvement: the forint quickly slipped back to the level around the opening, and the exchange rate even weakened for a short time. Now the shift is again around 388.7.

Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate

chart 55639

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0

Compared to the dollar, the same movement can be seen in the exchange rate, there too the forint is at a level around stagnation within the day, at 368 we are minimally above the opening exchange rate.

Development of the USD/HUF exchange rate

chart 55641

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0


Inflation and the bond market can drag the forint

Budapest Economic Forum 2023
The foreign exchange markets and the outlook for the HUF will be discussed in detail at our professional conference.

On Tuesday morning, the KSH announced that sIn September, inflation on an annual basis was 12.2 percent, which was in line with preliminary expectations, the analysts interviewed by Portfolio expected an average value of 12.3 percent. The current rate of price increase is the lowest since last June, which means that the pressure on domestic consumers is noticeably easing. Consumer prices increased by an average of 0.4% in one month, within which food became cheaper by 0.2%, mainly due to the increase in the price of fuel.

This was the most important macro data both at home and abroad on Tuesday, in the morning the International Monetary Fund’s global economic forecast may hold surprises, but it is less likely that it would move the foreign exchange markets.

In recent days, the days of the forint have been hectic: after large swings on Friday, it fell from 388.3 to below 386 during the day, but then closed above 387, and yesterday it again approached the 389 range compared to the euro. For the forint, based on the 200-day moving average, a weakening below the levels of around 388.5-389 could be critical, while below 387.7 there could be room for the forint.

The inflation figure has not surprised the markets so far, the euro is exchanged at 388.5.

Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate

chart 55625

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0

The markets are mostly determined by the rise in US bond yields, which may also affect the HUF: last week, yields on 10-year bonds jumped to a 16-year high of over 4.8 percent, but according to analysts, the levels could jump as high as 5 percent. For the time being, the levels have moved downward, hovering around 4.6 percent, but it will be interesting to see where it may move after the Columbus Day break.

The dollar-euro exchange rate has hardly moved so far, the exchange rate is at 1.056. The bond markets can make a big difference in this, if the turbulence continues and the common European currency starts to weaken, it can also pull the soil out from under the forint.

Development of the EUR/USD exchange rate

chart 55627

Currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, CFDs. Everything that makes a trader’s heart beat in connection with fluctuating exchange rates. Portfolio Tradernc=0

Cover image source: Shutterstock

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