Another bank can be bailed out, the stock exchanges react

RockedBuzz
By RockedBuzz 33 Min Read


The rise continues

Turning to the last hour of trading, the mood on the American stock exchanges is still good, in addition to the Dow’s 1 percent increase, the S&P 500 rose by 1.6 percent, and the Nasdaq is already up 2.4 percent.

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The atmosphere overseas is great

The leading overseas stock markets are climbing higher and higher, in addition to the Dow’s rise of 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 is up 1.5 percent, and the Nasdaq rose by 2.1 percent.

Optimism is fueled by the news that the Wall Street Journal report several large banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, are in talks about a possible capital injection for troubled First Republic Bank. According to the sources cited by the paper, even a complete takeover is possible, although this path was considered unlikely by those interviewed.

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By the end of the day, European stock markets rose

By the end of the day, parallel to the rise in the American stock market, the leading European indices regained momentum, approaching the close, the DAX was up 1.5 percent, and the CAC-40 was up 2.1 percent.

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An American bank stock is still being executed today

The day starts with a fall on the American stock markets, the Dow opened down 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 down 0.4 percent, and the Nasdaq down 0.2 percent.

Falling papers can still be found in the American financial sector, a First Republic Bank its exchange rate fell by more than 35 percent, to a historic low. The company was also downgraded to the bovli category by two credit rating agencies and, according to Bloomberg, they are investigating their strategic options, including the sale of the company. Another regional bank, the PacWest Bancorp its exchange rate also fell by nearly 14 percent.

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This is how the stock markets reacted to the ECB’s decision

European stock markets were hit by the ECB’s interest rate decision, the morning gain almost completely melted away in the DAX index.

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In contrast to the situation in the morning, it can no longer be said that the mood is good for the European stock markets in general, the leading indices are showing upward movements.

The BUX index is among the weaker performers, only the Polish market fell more.


The fall has started in the OTP market

In the afternoon, the fall started again on the OTP market, the bank paper is already in the red by almost 4 percent, dragging the BUX index with it, which depreciated by 1.7 percent.

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Europe is also getting tired

The leading European indices are losing their momentum, but they are still in a plus compared to Wednesday’s closing value, the DAX and CAC-40 are only at their strongholds of 0.5 and 0.6 percent after the more than 1 percent gain seen at the opening.

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Europe is rising, Credit Suisse is soaring

European stock markets opened with a rise, the Stoxx 600 index gained 1 percent in the minutes following the opening with bank papers in the leadbut the indices of the energy and retail sectors are also among the top performers.

Behind today’s rebound is the lifeline provided to Credit Suisse, accordingly, the shares of the Swiss bank are soaring today after the price of the papers fell to a historic low yesterday. Credit Suisse started trading with a 30 percent gain.

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The OTP is falling

The Hungarian stock market opens with a fall, BUX started the day with a 1 percent decrease. Of the blue chips OTP’s shares perform the weakest, the bank paper is down 3 percent, while Mol rises by 0.4 percent. Richter fell by 0.3 percent, Telekom by 0.1 percent.

Development of the OTP exchange rate


What are the current events on the stock exchanges?

  • The leading US stock indexes closed mixed yesterday, the Dow Jones was down 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 ended the day down 0.7 percent, while the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.4 percent.
  • The Asian stock markets are showing a positive mood this morning, the Nikkei fell by 2.04 percent, the Hang Seng is down by 2 percent, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.15 percent.
  • However, the European stock markets may already rise on Thursday morning, based on the future stock indices, the DAX may rise by 1.42 percent, the CAC may open with a gain of 1.23 percent, while the FTSE may rise by 0.8 percent.
  • The reason behind the jump may be that Credit Suisse, the major Swiss bank, announced on Thursday that it will take a $54 billion loan from the Swiss central bank to bolster liquidity and investor confidence after a plunge in its shares fueled fears of a global banking crisis.

  • The American futures stock indexes are forecasting a rise at the market opening, the Dow Jones may rise by 0.01 percent, the S&P 500 may open with a gain of 0.06 percent, while the Nasdaq may rise by 0.14 percent.

What can be expected on the macro front?

Today in the USA, housing construction permits are announced, which is important from the point of view of monetary policy. However, it is a much more important event ECB interest rate decision meeting. You should also pay attention to the press conference that follows, as President Lagarde may say something about the central bank’s plans for the next meetings.

March 13 – March 19, 2023. Macro calendar
Hungarian macroeconomics
March14.Tuesday8:30 a.mMNBStatistical scaleFeb.
March14.Tuesday8:30 a.mKSHBuilding industryJan.
March14.Tuesday8:30 a.mKSHIndustry (second estimate)Jan.
March14.Tuesday11:30 a.mAKK3-month dkj auction
March16.Thursday8:30 a.mMNBPayment board setQ4
March17.Friday8:30 a.mMNBBalance of paymentsJan.
March17.Friday8:30 a.mMNBInternational reservesFeb.
International macroeconomics
March14.Tuesday8:00 a.mUKUnemploymentJan.
March14.Tuesday8:00 a.mEUEcofin seat
March14.Tuesday1:30 p.mUSAInflationFeb.
March15.Wednesday3:00 a.mChinaRetail tradeFeb.
March15.Wednesday11:00 a.mEUIndustryJan.
March15.Wednesday1:30 p.mUSARetail tradeFeb.
March16.Thursday1:30 p.mUSAResidential building permitsFeb.
March16.Thursday2:15 p.mEUECB interest rate decision
March16.Thursday2:45 p.mEUChristina Lagarde’s press conference
March17.Friday11:00 a.mEUInflation (revised)Feb.
March17.Friday15:00USAMichigan indexMar.
Source: Portfolio collection

What has happened on the stock markets so far?

  • Among the leading American, Asian, European and regional stock indexes this year, the Nasdaq index is at the top with a 12.0 percent shift, while the BUX index is the driving force with a 4.5 percent drop.
  • Magyar Telekom’s share performed the best among domestic blue chips this year with a 14.2 percent increase, and Richter’s paper is at the bottom of the list with an 11.4 percent fall.
  • Among the most important raw materials, the price of gold has risen by 6.3 percent since the beginning of the year.
More important instruments
Exchange rateOne day1 week1 monthThis year1 year5 years
US stock indices
Dow Jones31,874.57-0.9%-2.8%-6.6%-3.8%-5.0%28.1%
S&P 5003,891.93-0.7%-2.5%-6.2%1.4%-8.7%41.7%
Nasdaq12,251.320.4%0.3%-3.4%12.0%-9.0%74.2%
Asian stock indices
Nikkei27,229.480.0%-4.3%-1.0%4.3%7.4%24.9%
Hang Seng19,539.871.5%-2.6%-6.1%-1.2%6.1%-38.0%
CSI 3003,986.90.1%-1.2%-3.3%3.0%0.1%-2.7%
European stock indices
DAX14,735.26-3.3%-5.7%-5.0%5.8%5.9%19.4%
CAC6,885.71-3.6%-6.0%-5.7%6.4%8.4%30.7%
FTSE7,344.45-3.8%-7.4%-8.2%-1.4%2.4%2.9%
FTSE MIB25,565.84-4.6%-8.4%-7.1%7.8%8.8%12.6%
IBEX8,759.1-4.4%-7.5%-5.8%6.4%6.4%-9.6%
Regional stock indices
BUX41,807.290.0%-3.1%-9.6%-4.5%-2.6%7.5%
ATX3 148.43-6.3%-11.5%-9.2%0.7%-1.8%-8.0%
PX1,312.14-3.2%-6.9%-6.7%9.2%0.8%17.6%
WIG2056,844.08-2.6%-7.0%-6.2%-1.1%-6.3%-7.1%
Hungarian blue chips
OTP9,9000.0%-2.5%-12.2%-2.1%-17.8%-15.6%
Mol2 4600.0%-6.1%-12.0%-5.5%-5.0%-18.3%
Richter7,3500.0%-2.1%-7.4%-11.4%2.9%32.0%
Magyar Telekom3870.0%-1.4%6.2%14.2%-1.8%-12.7%
Raw materials
WTI67.51-5.2%-11.8%-14.1%-15.9%-30.0%10.4%
Brent74.9-3.3%-9.5%-12.2%-11.8%-24.5%15.1%
Ratio1,929.141.3%6.0%5.2%6.3%0.2%46.5%
Silver21.930.3%9.3%1.3%-7.7%-12.0%33.6%
Foreign currencies
EURHUF400.07502.4%5.8%5.1%-0.1%7.6%28.5%
USDHUF379.77604.2%5.9%6.6%1.2%12.1%50.3%
GBPHUF452.81492.6%6.5%5.8%0.2%2.6%28.4%
EURUSD1.0535-1.8%-0.2%-1.3%-1.3%-4.0%-14.5%
USDJPY134.33000.0%-1.9%0.0%0.8%13.6%26.7%
GBPUSD1.2031-1.0%1.6%0.2%0.0%-7.9%-13.7%
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin24,368-1.5%12.3%0.1%46.8%-38.0%194.8%
Government papers
10-year US Treasury yield3.48-5.1%-12.5%-8.9%-9.1%61.2%23.3%
10-year German government bond yield2.12-13.6%-19.8%-13.2%-17.3%635.8%268.5%
10-year Hungarian government bond yield8.810.0%-0.9%6.1%-4.8%47.8%222.7%
Source: Refinitiv, Portfolio

Cover image source: xPACIFICA

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