He’s getting weak again
The momentum did not last long, the forint weakened again after the small correction. Now one euro costs 388 HUF 10 fils, i.e. the price is above 388 again. The weakening is now over 1%, but the forint was even weaker today.
Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate
They pulled back the HUF
The leader of the Fidesz faction announced at the press conference during the break of the postponed session that there will be no increase in bank tax and no review of interest subsidies. Kocsis set the signal to this effect as the private opinion of the Minister of Finance Mihály Varga, and as a result, the forint suddenly started to strengthen, and the minus of around 7% in the share price of OTP Bank melted down to a drop of around 4%. The quotation of the euro fluctuates between 386-387, i.e. at a stronger level than the level of almost 389 in the early afternoon.
388 below
Currently, the forint is weakening by 0.8%, it has just been corrected slightly, but the weakening is still significant within the day. One euro now costs HUF 387 and HUF 40.
Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate
They continue to beat the forint after the messages of the leaders of Hungarian economic policy
In the last half an hour, another wave of forint fall was formed: the quotations of the euro jumped to 388.5, while the dollar also strengthened against the euro, so the dollar/forint quotations are already at 365.5. It is therefore getting closer to being able to talk about a new six-month low for the forint against the dollar (this would occur above 365.7). Meanwhile, OTP Bank’s share price is also suffering after the drop in the morning, which was triggered by the introduction of the new bank tax, and is currently down around 7%.
The forint cannot recover
After the sudden fall of the forint in the morning, there was a slight recovery and calm, but then the forint weakened again, so it is above 387 against the euro. Since the dollar is persistently strong as a result of last night’s Fed messages, the HUF is around 364 against it. At an exchange rate slightly above 366, we could talk about a new six-month forint low.
With today’s fall of around 0.8%, the forint is once again out of the regional field, because the zloty and the koruna weakened by only 0.3% and 0.2% respectively compared to the euro in an already gloomy market mood due to the Fed .
The strengthening of the dollar has stopped
The weakening of the forint and the regional currencies is a bit surprising because it stopped while the dollar was strengthening. The Euro-Dollar quote is now close to 1.066, which is almost the same as Wednesday evening.
Development of the EUR/USD exchange rate
Already around 387
The weakening of the forint is not abating on Thursday morning, the euro was already above 387. It is now around 386.85, which means a 0.7 percent weakening of the forint compared to yesterday. Meanwhile, in the region, the Polish zloty has weakened by 0.3 percent and the Czech crown by 0.2 percent against the euro.
Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate
They pushed the HUF again
In the gloomy mood after last night’s Fed interest rate decision, the euro was even around 385.5 against the forint in the morning, then there was a temporary strengthening of the forint near 384, then the forint fell again in the last few minutes, the quotations jumped back above 385, and even now the 386 level is being approached. The dollar exchange rate hovers around 362 on the interbank market.
They pushed the forint down, the euro is above 385
Information and application
On Thursday morning, the forint weakened to 385.2 against the euro, which was 0.2 percent higher than last night’s quotation. In other words, the forint has apparently broken out of the 380-385 range that has been persistent for weeks, but it would be too early to call it quits. Today can be decisive, if the euro closes above 385, then it can be said that it has broken out upwards. The weakening of the forint can clearly be attributed to the strength of the dollar, the American currency improved after the Fed’s interest rate decision, as the central bank predicted the possibility of further interest rate hikes. Against the dollar, we are now close to 362, while the British pound costs HUF 445.9.
Development of the EUR/HUF exchange rate
Among the competitors of the forint in the region, the Polish zloty and the Czech koruna weakened by 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent, which means that the strengthening of the dollar also affected other Central and Eastern European currencies. In the emerging market, the Turkish lira started the day with stagnation for the time being, investors are mainly paying attention to the interest rate decision today, and according to expectations, an additional 500-600 basis point interest rate hike may come. The Russian ruble starts the day with a 0.3 percent weakness against the dollar.
We mentioned that the Fed predicted the possibility of further interest rate hikes, as a result of which the dollar strengthened below 1.065 against the euro. The key question is how long-lasting this trend will be, and this can also be decisive from the point of view of the forint. The Japanese yen is stagnant for the time being, and the British pound is weakening by 0.15 percent against the dollar.
Development of the EUR/USD exchange rate
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