Spain is holding national elections on July 23, and the latest polls indicate a slight shift in the political dynamic. The popularity of the previously leading right-wing parties fell, so the left-wing coalition led by the Socialists (PSOE) gained some ground. However, despite the decline, right-wing parties still occupy a significant position on the electoral palette.
The conservative People’s Party (PP) and its potential ally, the far-right Vox party, are projected to win enough seats to form an absolute majority in the 350-member lower house. This forecast is based on two separate polls released recently. However, according to another survey, they may not reach an absolute majority.
The PP has been leading the polls since Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez unexpectedly called early elections on May 29. This decision was made after his party and smaller coalition partner, Podemos, performed disappointingly in the regional and municipal elections. All surveys indicate that the PP would need the support of Vox to form a government.
However, the lead of the right-wing parties has narrowed significantly ahead of PSOE and Sumar, a new far-left grouping that includes Podemos.
This change occurred in just a few days, according to pollsters.
According to a survey conducted by GAD3 for ABC newspaper on June 29-30, the PP is expected to win 150-154 seats. An earlier GAD3 survey conducted between June 5 and June 8 predicted a similar result for the PP, with a forecast of between 150 and 153 seats.
According to Vox’s forecast, however, it fell from 33-35 places at the beginning of June to 25-29 places according to GAD3. A separate survey conducted by IMOP Insights for El Confidencial also showed a slight drop in combined mandate forecasts for PP and Vox – from 180-183 two weeks ago to 176-182 now. According to the third 40DB survey commissioned by the daily newspaper El Pais, the PP and Vox would not achieve the 176 mandates required for an absolute majority, together they would obtain only 168 mandates, compared to the 174 mandates of the previous, similar research.
Cover photo: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez speaks to members of the press. MTI/EPA/Olivier Matthys